If you listen to the HYH Podcast then you’ve probably heard me talk about my absolute LOVE of this scene between Saul and Ivan. The way Saul relates to Ivan about running an important asset like Allison has always made me feel like Saul was talking from experience, specifically in how he manages Carrie.
That being said, I’m with you, Saul had to have known that Carrie wasn’t going to get on that plane willingly. Maybe he had too much going on and just trusted her to go back to Germany, but I don’t buy it. He didn’t report her contact with Yevgeny right away either. Saul has had a bigger plan at play in the past, could that be happening here? That would be best case scenario for Carrie, tbh. Because if she really has gone completely rogue, Saul is now too compromised in his own job to help her.