Real talk when this ask first came in a few weeks ago it made me actually kinda mad but time heals all and now I’m decidedly less emotional. So.
The star on the wall thing is a very common theory that presently I do not like as it seems kinda hokey, but I think it’s probably the most likely of any theory that’s out there, especially if Carrie dies.
But I can’t see her committing suicide (and, wouldn’t Carrie killing herself mean she couldn’t get a star on the wall? your ask implies they will both happen but to me they are mutually exclusive). That whole line of questioning in 7.03 where her therapist asks if she’s a danger to herself and she says she never would because of Franny was so out of left field as to seem intentional and not just a throwaway. Of course that does assume the writers remember that, which is also not a given.
But…. deep down, I think Alex Gansa does actually love Carrie Mathison. And I don’t think he’d do some sort of sensationalist finale at the expense of her character’s journey (and the show’s legacy, since we all know a lot of a show’s legacy is wrapped up in its ending) just for some headlines. He gets the fairly rare opportunity to end this series on his own terms and give the character the ending that he wants and I cannot actually fathom that that ending is Carrie killing herself.